Trump threatens China, again

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11 July 2018

thomasdodds

The US administration took another step forward in the trade conflict by releasing the list of Chinese goods it proposes to hit with new duties.

E
arlier, Trump threatened to levy a 10% tariff on an additional $200 bn worth of Chinese goods. If this happens, it would mean that roughly a half of all the goods imported to the US from China will be taxed. It is unclear how China will respond, but in a statement released by its ministry of commerce, it vowed to fight back. New information led to another sell-off in risky assets, with Asian stocks and the Yuan leading the decline.

Sentiment indicators disappoint, Euro falls

The common currency fell during European trading, selling-off ahead of the publication of the new ZEW indicators from Germany and the Euro Area. The indices disappointed, with German economic sentiment falling to – 24.7 in July, down from – 16.1 a month ago, compared to the consensus forecast of – 18.0. The index is currently at its lowest level since 2012. The EUR/USD rebounded later in the day, but at the moment of writing is still below levels seen at the beginning of the week.

The data from the US, on the other hand, was quite impressive. Job openings eased from April’s high, but were better-than-expected and still remain elevated. What’s more, voluntary job quits rose to a 17-year high in May, showing workers confidence in the job market, which is likely to continue to translate into higher wages.

GBP/EUR rebounds after Monday jitters

Sterling rebounded from Monday lows on Tuesday, after investors grew more confident that Theresa May is unlikely to lose her position in the near future. Production data from the UK disappointed, but it did not cause significant trouble for the Pound.

Today we won’t receive any particularly interesting macro releases from the main economies, however, it will be packed with central bank speeches. The most important is likely to be Mark Carney’s address. Investors, however, should focus on the prospects of further deterioration of the US-China trade relationship.