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20 July 2016


Financial markets reacted badly to Britain’s unexpected decision to leave the European Union.

his is perhaps the most significant political event in Europe in the last few decades and has led to one of the most volatile, uncertain periods of currency trading in recent memory.

We’ve made significant revisions to our currency forecasts since the referendum based on the following key expectations:

  • The negotiating process will be protracted and few, if any, actual changes will take place for many years.
  • Britain will end up retaining access to the single market in some form, in return for concessions elsewhere.
  • Central bank easing will help stabilise financial markets not far from current levels.
  • There will be a significant downturn in UK investment over the next two quarters, while decision makers wait for uncertainty to dissipate.
  • There will be a sustained decrease in imports into the UK on the back of consumer uncertainty and the lower Pound.
  • Download the G10 report to see our full forecasts per currency: