Dovish Federal Reserve sends Dollar reeling

Two key events this week should focus the attention of currency traders: on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell will give a speech, and on Friday we get the flash inflation data for June in the Eurozone. Given the increasing importance all major central banks are giving to the lack of inflation pressures to justified dovish stances, every major inflation report worldwide needs to be closely watched.

GBP

At its June meeting last week, the Bank of England suggested that it is growing increasingly anxious about the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. While its central scenario remains that a deal will be reached, in which case a very gradual removal of monetary stimulus would be appropriate, it made it clear that it would cut rates significantly in the event of no deal. Sterling initially reacted poorly, but toward the end of the week it caught up in the general rally against the Dollar. This week should be a quiet one in terms of economic news, so the main driver for Sterling will be any pronouncements on Brexit from the front runner for the Tory leadership, Boris Johnson.

EUR

ECB President Draghi’s very dovish tone at the Sintra conference on monetary policy on Monday temporarily brought down the Euro, however, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday brought the common currency roaring back against the Dollar, as markets price in multiple cuts from the Fed and a significant narrowing in interest rate differentials. The PMI indices of business activity improved modestly, confirming our view that a recession in the Eurozone is not on the cards, and there is still considerable room for job creation and increased domestic consumption in most major economies there.

USD

The Federal Reserve left little doubt that a cut is coming at the July meeting. The communications were perceived by the market as dovish, and there is now a full easing cycle of as many as four 0.25% cuts priced in the interest rate markets. We do think these expectations are overdone, and a serious gap is developing between the “dot plot” and those market prices again. However, there is little doubt that the policy and political mix in the US is now as bearish for the Dollar as one can imagine. The consensus is towards lower rates, higher deficits, and a weaker Dollar at any cost. We think this validates strongly our forecasts for stronger European currencies and, in particular, further rallies in emerging market currencies throughout 2019.