World currencies in holding pattern ahead of US Thanksgiving holiday

We may see another tranquil week in markets as US traders look to their Thanksgiving holiday in the second half of the week. In the UK, the Conservative lead in the polls bodes well for sterling outperformance. An ECB communique on Wednesday may boost volatility in the common currency, and the all-important Eurozone inflation numbers come out on Friday. The Thanksgiving week is, however, not generally conducive to dramatic market moves.

GBP

The leaders’ debate in the UK came and went without a clear winner, which is excellent news for the Tories given their commanding lead in the polls. Last week’s PMI surveys were, however, very weak, consistent with a contracting economy and the lowest level since the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. After the significant rise of the pound in the last few weeks, sterling positioning had become stretched and PMI weakness was used as an excuse to send the UK currency modestly lower.

With no critical macroeconomic news on tap this week, election news will continue to dominate trading. We will be paying close attention to any sign that the Tory lead is starting to erode in the final stretch of the campaign, as it did in 2017, though no indication of that has emerged as of yet.

EUR

The euro went nowhere until late last week, when disappointing PMI numbers knocked the wind out of the common currency. Lagarde’s speech calling for fiscal policy took on even more urgency as signs of a reacceleration of Eurozone growth failed to materialise.

The key event for this week will be the release of the flash inflation numbers on Friday. The spread of economists forecasts is unusually wide, but it seems likely that core inflation will rise for the third consecutive month, which could provide some support for the euro in thin Thanksgiving markets.

USD

Economic data out of the US last week came out mostly on the strong side, though it consisted mainly of second-tier releases. The dollar held its ground against other G10 currencies but rallied steadily throughout the week against emerging market currencies, the latter hurt by continued trade uncertainty.

Newsflow will be very limited on this holiday week, though we cannot rule out market-moving headlines on the US-China trade conflict. The greenback is, however, most likely to trade off news elsewhere in the world this week.